Gartner: Mobilnachrichten werden 2008 die 2-Billionen-Grenze überschreiten

Gartner estimates 189 billion mobile messages will be sent in 2007 in North America, and this is forecast to reach 301 billion in 2008. “The market is being driven by increased penetration of users, more frequent usage of peer-to-peer messaging, and unlimited and bucketed messaging plans,” said Tole Hart, research director at Gartner. “There has also been some uptake of mobile e-mail via POP3 mailboxes and mobile IM service, but it's very small compared with the uptake of SMS. These services are used primarily as an extension to a PC. However, the market is seeing a number of consumers using BlackBerry and Palm Treo devices to access address books, phone numbers and e-mail.”

Mobile messaging usage has increased in all Western European countries, and the growth in the number of messages sent is projected to continue until 2010. A total of 202 billion mobile messages will be sent in 2007 in Western Europe, and this is forecast to reach 215 billion in 2008. “However, due to competitive price cutting, an expected increase in international charging regulations and more unlimited bundles, the revenue generated from peer-to-peer messaging is tending to flatten and is even showing some decline from 2007 (this trend is affected by exchange rate variations),” said Stephanie Pittet, principal research analyst at Gartner. “Africa is expected to see sustained healthy growth and the low price of SMS compared with voice calls makes it an ideal service in countries where people have low buying power.”

Mobile consumer e-mail has become more common, especially in the wake of higher smartphone adoption, improved usability and ease of configuration. Mobile IM will become a mass-market application similar to mobile e-mail in developed markets, initially being adopted by PC-based IM users, who are now able to access their service on their mobile phones, due to partnerships between the operators and the IM providers.

“To sustain growth over the next few years, carriers should look to social-networking applications to drive traffic, working where possible with popular established social-networking sites,” said Mr. Ingelbrecht. “Mobile search and advertising also offer attractive potential drivers for SMS traffic, although most carriers appear poorly placed to support the end-to-end campaign management and reporting requirements of media buyers and advertisers.”

Additional information is available in the Gartner report “Market Trends: Mobile Messaging, Worldwide, 2006-2011.” The report is available on Gartner’s Web site at www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=g_search&id=550707&subref=simplesearch.

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