Gartner: Cloud Computing braucht sieben Jahre bis zur vollen Marktreife

Gartner definiert drei Phasen der Entwicklung des Cloud Computing Marktes bis 2015 und darüber hinaus

Laut dem IT-Marktforschungs- und Beratungsunternehmen Gartner befindet sich der Markt für Cloud Computing in einer aktiven, wachstumsträchtigen Phase mit viel Potential; es wird jedoch immer noch einige Jahre und viele Marktveränderungen brauchen, bevor Cloud Computing – oder Service Enabled Application Platforms (SEAPs) – sich zu einem etablierten IT-Produkt entwickelt hat.

Gartner sagt, dass Unternehmen mit einer technologisch offensiven Anwendungsentwicklung Cloud Computing für taktische Projekte bis 2011 in Betracht ziehen sollten. Bis dahin wird sich der Markt weiter entwickeln und von einer kleinen Gruppe von Anbietern beherrscht werden. Nach dieser Phase prognostiziert Gartner, dass der Markt eine Flut von neuen Anbietern und eine anschließende Konsolidierung erlebt, da Cloud Computing dann für viele etablierte Anwendungsentwickler reizvoll wird. Bis zum Jahr 2015 wird Cloud Computing ein Massenprodukt und die bevorzugte Lösung für viele Anwendungsentwicklungsprojekte sein.

Gartner Outlines Three Phases of Evolution for Cloud Computing Market Through 2015 and Beyond

Stamford, Conn., February 2, 2009 – The cloud computing market is in a period of excitement, growth and high potential, but will still require several years and many changes in the market before cloud computing — or service-enabled application platforms (SEAPs) — is a mainstream IT effort, according to Gartner, Inc.

Gartner said that technologically aggressive application development organisations should look to cloud computing for tactical projects through 2011, during which time the market will begin to mature and be dominated by a select group of vendors. Following this period, Gartner predicts that the market will see a surge of new vendors and subsequent consolidation as cloud computing becomes appealing to more mainstream application development organizations. By 2015, cloud computing will have been commoditised and will be the preferred solution for many application development projects.

"SEAPs are the foundation on which software-as-a-service solutions are built," said Mark Driver, research vice president at Gartner. "As SEAP technologies mature during the next several years, Gartner foresees three distinct, but slightly overlapping, phases of evolution. The first phase, through 2011, will be that of the pioneers and trailblazers; the second, running from 2010 through 2013, will be all about market consolidation; while the third phase, from 2012 through 2015, will see mainstream critical mass and commoditisation."

Phase 1: 2007 to 2011 — Pioneers and Trailblazers

This will largely be a market development phase. Through 2011, given the natural immaturity of SEAP solutions, compounded by their proprietary nature, Gartner advises most SEAP adopters to focus on opportunistic solutions — quick-hit, tactical opportunities where time to market and developer productivity outweigh long-term technical viability. Although some rare exceptions will exist, mainstream IT developers should focus primarily on SEAP investments where return on investment can be acquired within 18 to 24 months.