Gartner: 2009 wird die Halbleiterindustrie zum ersten Mal in ihrer Geschichte ein zweites Jahr hintereinander mit einem Umsatzrückgang erfahren

Gartner analysts said the wild card for the semiconductor industry in 2009 is DRAM. The DRAM industry has been in a downturn for 18 months and losses are now approaching $12 billion.

“The DRAM market is so bad that suppliers must either significantly scale back supply, or the weaker players will be forced into mergers or bankruptcy. Either way, we are expecting DRAM pricing to firm during the second half of 2009, and this has the potential to moderate the decline in 2009 semiconductor revenue," said Andrew Norwood, research vice president at Gartner. “Only widespread government support for the ailing DRAM vendors could avert this supply rationalisation, and that would be a disaster for the industry as it would just prolong the current downturn.”

At this time, there is much uncertainty in the market. In fact, Gartner analysts have said that in the negative scenario, the semiconductor industry could decline 24.7 per cent. “However, with such a steep decline in the fourth quarter of 2008, it is possible that some companies have over-corrected to be on the safe side by keeping inventory levels at the absolute minimum,” Mr Lewis said. “This leaves the door open for semiconductor sales in the first quarter of 2009 to be somewhat better than seasonally expected as some inventories will need to be replenished.”

Gartner expects the semiconductor industry to bounce back in 2010 and 2011, with worldwide semiconductor revenue reaching $251.2 billion in 2010, a 14.6 per cent increase from 2009, and in 2011 revenue reaching $274.9 billion, a 9.4 per cent increase from the previous year.

Additional information is available the Gartner report “Dataquest Alert: Semiconductor Revenue Plummets in 4Q08, Gartner Reduces 2009 Growth to 16%." The report is available on Gartner’s website at http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?ref=g_search&id=838214&subref=simplesearch.

Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the world's leading information technology research and advisory company. Gartner delivers the technology-related insight necessary for its clients to make the right decisions, every day. From CIOs and senior IT leaders in corporations and government agencies, to business leaders in high-tech and telecom enterprises and professional services firms, to technology investors, Gartner is the indispensable partner to 60,000 clients in 10,000 distinct organizations. Through the resources of Gartner Research, Gartner Executive Programs, Gartner Consulting and Gartner Events, Gartner works with every client to research, analyze and interpret the business of IT within the context of their individual role. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, U.S.A., and has 4,000 associates, including 1,200 research analysts and consultants in 80 countries. For more information, visit www.gartner.com.